Question: was the 2026 group stage more lopsided?
The most lopsided group stage since 1986.
Only 35% of decided group matches were won by one goal. In earlier World Cups it was 41% to 62%.
VerdictNew in 2026
What it means
35%of decided group matches in 2026 were won by one goal (18 of 52).
39% to 64%the range of World Cups drawn at random from the history. 2026 fell below it.
25%of group matches were big wins: a record, but at the edge of chance.
How we know
- Base
- group matches with a winner at 90 minutes; draws are left out.
- The range
- we drew thousands of same-size World Cups from all group matches of 1986 to 2026; the range holds 95% of them.
- Rule, written before looking at the data
- outside the range is new in 2026; inside but at the edge is at the edge of chance; in the middle is usual.