FIFA World Cup · 11 tournaments, 1986 to 2026
Of the 7 things every fan says about the World Cup, 4 are myths.
We checked each one against 708 matches. The rule that tells a myth from a fact was written before looking at the data, and we publish every result, including the ones that came to nothing.
The claims, checked
- Myth
“2-0 is the most dangerous lead.”
5%of teams that went 2-0 up failed to win. Teams 1-0 up at the same minute: 27%. See → - Myth
“At the World Cup, the favorite struggles in the knockout.”
70%of the points available went to the favorite in the knockout (a draw counts half), above the 65% its strength predicted. See → - Myth
“Some teams are specialists in deciding late.”
0 of 48of the most frequent teams are beyond what chance explains, for late goals scored or conceded. See → - Myth
“A team leading by one sits back.”
1.8 × 1.6goals per 90 minutes from the 76th minute: a team leading 1-0 against a team at 0-0. No sign of sitting back. See → - True
“Playing at home helps at the World Cup.”
11 of 14hosts did better than their strength predicted. Brazil 2014 and Qatar 2022 are among the exceptions. See → - True, borderline
“The kick that must go in trembles.”
58%of kicks where a miss eliminates went in. Other kicks: 71%. See → - True, borderline
“With 48 teams, losing the opener is no longer fatal.”
40%of the teams that lost their opener in 2026 went through. With 32 teams, it was 13%. See →
And what was new in 2026?
Each 2026 figure against World Cups drawn at random from the history: outside the range is new; inside is not.
The group stage got more lopsided: only 35% of decided matches were won by one goal.
In earlier World Cups it was 41% to 62%. Big wins also hit a record (25% of matches), but that one sits at the edge of chance.
See the full analysis →Stoppage time grew, and so did goals after the 90th minute.
In 2026 there were 0.33 second-half stoppage-time goals per match, against 0.13 in 1986-2022. Part of the "dramatic finish" is just longer games.
See the full analysis →39% of knockout matches were decided in the last 15 minutes.
It felt like a lot, but two 1990s World Cups reached 40%, and the figure fits the usual variation between tournaments. The excess came from the new round, the round of 32.
See the full analysis →11 World Cups, 708 matches, 7 claims checked.
Every answer shows how many matches back it up and how it was computed. The data is open.