The claim: “At the World Cup, the favorite struggles in the knockout.”
In the knockout, the favorite does better, not worse.
Measured against what team strength predicted, favorites do better in knockout matches than in the group stage.
VerdictMyth
In the knockout
The favorite got 70%; strength predicted 65%.
In the group stage
The favorite got 69%; strength predicted 69%.
What it means
70%of the points available went to the favorite in the knockout. Strength predicted 65%.
69%in the group stage, almost the same as the 69% predicted.
181knockout matches since 1986, third-place matches excluded, against 516 group matches.
How we know
- Strength
- each team's Elo rating before the match, computed from every international match since 1872 (a public-domain results database).
- Predicted
- the expected result from the Elo difference, as if on neutral ground; the favorite is the team with the higher Elo.
- Rule, written before looking at the data
- the claim would be true if, against its prediction, the favorite did at least 5 points worse in the knockout than in the group stage. The difference (groups minus knockout) was -4 points, interval -10 to +2: the favorite does better in the knockout. Myth.