The claim: “Playing at home helps at the World Cup.”
Hosts do better than their strength predicted.
Almost every host country went beyond what its level suggested. The edge is close to the one Elo already gives a home side.
VerdictTrue
Each host against what its strength predicted
Points per match above (blue) or below (grey) the prediction, in percentage points; a draw counts half.
What it means
+12percentage points per match above what strength predicted, on average.
11 of 14hosts finished above the prediction. Brazil 2014, Qatar 2022 and Canada 2026 finished below.
+4 to +20the interval of the effect: above zero even in the worst case.
How we know
- Base
- 14 hosts since 1986 (2002 had two and 2026 had three), 70 group and knockout matches.
- Strength
- each team's Elo rating before the match, computed from every international match since 1872 (a public-domain results database).
- Predicted
- the expected result from the Elo difference, without the home bonus: as if the host played on neutral ground.
- Rule, written before looking at the data
- true if the interval sat above zero and both halves of the history (1986-2002 and 2006-2026) pointed the same way. They do. True.